# D3 — Risk Register

**Project:** Kingsford Hotel Bacolod BMS
**Date:** 2026-04-27
**Source:** Synthesis from `03-doc-inventory.md` (gaps), `07-assumptions.md` (assumptions), `08-customer-clarifications.md` (open Q's), C2 + D1.

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## Risk scoring

| Likelihood | Impact | Score |
|------------|--------|-------|
| Low (L) | Low (L) | 1 |
| Low (L) | Medium (M) | 2 |
| Medium (M) | Low (L) | 2 |
| Low (L) | High (H) | 3 |
| Medium (M) | Medium (M) | 4 |
| High (H) | Low (L) | 3 |
| Medium (M) | High (H) | 6 |
| High (H) | Medium (M) | 6 |
| High (H) | High (H) | 9 |

Highest first; mitigation owner is "BMS team" unless noted.

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## Risks

### R-01 — Scope expansion via Q-019 (guestroom FCUs)
- **Likelihood:** Medium  · **Impact:** High  · **Score:** 6
- **Risk:** If customer confirms FCU monitoring/control in BMS scope, +200-500 I/O points (potentially doubling A1) + +30-40% project cost.
- **Trigger / signal:** Customer answer to Q-019.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Pre-empt: explicitly state FCU exclusion in inclusions/exclusions (C3).
  - If customer wants FCUs, price as a discrete add-on with separate WBS branch and BOQ.
  - Time-box: get Q-019 answer before week 4 engineering wrap.

### R-02 — Long-lead chiller controller / equipment delivery slip
- **Likelihood:** Medium  · **Impact:** High  · **Score:** 6
- **Risk:** Tier-1 BACnet IP chiller controllers and BMS server have 8–12 week lead times. If supply slip > 4 weeks, installation start moves and 16-week schedule (A-009) breaks.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Order day-1 with PO; expedite premium budgeted as contingency.
  - Tier-2 alternative supplier identified during Phase 9 RFQ (parallel quote).
  - Bonded warehouse hold to insulate from customs/freight delays.

### R-03 — Existing BOH AHU schedule incomplete (Q-021)
- **Likelihood:** High  · **Impact:** Medium  · **Score:** 6
- **Risk:** Points list shows qty 10 BOH AHUs but only 3 are tagged. If 7 unenumerated AHUs exist, +119 I/O points + 1-2 panels. If they don't exist (count is wrong), no harm — but BOQ must be defendable either way.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Pre-empt: explicit clarification in C3 that base scope covers 3 AHUs (CHWP-1.1/1.2/1.3); 7 additional AHUs priced as an option pending Q-021.
  - Build A1 supplemental rows when Q-021 answers; re-price on confirmation.

### R-04 — MEP contractor sequencing delays (BMS waits for tray/conduit)
- **Likelihood:** High  · **Impact:** Medium  · **Score:** 6
- **Risk:** BMS first-fix and cable-pulling depend on ME contractor's tray/conduit completion. Standard greenfield MEP coordination friction.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Coordination meetings (weekly) starting week 1.
  - Firm MEP hand-over dates submitted with engineering submittals (week 3).
  - Buffer: BMS internal slack of 1 week embedded in installation phase.
  - Escalation path: customer's MEP coordinator named in submittals.

### R-05 — Customer schedule pressure (Q-007 reveals < 16 weeks required)
- **Likelihood:** Medium  · **Impact:** High  · **Score:** 6
- **Risk:** A-009 assumes 16 weeks; if customer requires 10–12 weeks, requires double crew + overtime + parallel activities. +20–30% labor cost.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Surface Q-007 immediately; revise A-009 if customer answers.
  - If schedule is firm-shorter, propose with explicit overtime + crew premium pricing — customer chooses.

### R-06 — Cover letter says "Rehabilitation" (Q-018)
- **Likelihood:** Low (technical evidence overwhelmingly points to greenfield) · **Impact:** High · **Score:** 3
- **Risk:** If Q-018 reveals retrofit, +demolition + cable reuse decisions + cutover phasing + after-hours work premium. ±30% on total cost.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Explicit Q-018 in clarifications list.
  - If retrofit confirmed: reactivate retired assumptions (A-006, A-010, A-011, A-012) and add demolition WBS branch.
  - Defensive: state base proposal is greenfield-priced and retrofit is priced separately if applicable.

### R-07 — FDAS / PMS / CCTV / ACS integration scope creep (Q-012)
- **Likelihood:** Medium · **Impact:** Medium · **Score:** 4
- **Risk:** Customer expects integration as standard hotel BMS; we excluded by default. Per integration adds 80–200 hours of programming + middleware cost.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Explicit "integration excluded unless specified" in C3.
  - Offer each integration as a discrete priced option with line-item cost + risks.

### R-08 — Brand standardization (Q-013)
- **Likelihood:** Low · **Impact:** Medium · **Score:** 2
- **Risk:** Megaworld portfolio standard may dictate a specific BMS brand we haven't quoted. Lock-in to alternative supplier may shift pricing ±15%.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Q-013 in RFI; obtain answer before Phase 9 RFQ dispatch.
  - Multi-brand RFQ in Phase 9 (parallel quotes from 2–3 vendors).

### R-09 — Customer commercial terms tighter than assumed (Q-014)
- **Likelihood:** Medium · **Impact:** Medium · **Score:** 4
- **Risk:** Standard 30-day net + 10% retention may be replaced by 60-day net + 15% retention + LD clauses. Affects cash-flow and risk premium.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Q-014 surfaces this early.
  - Cash-flow modeled in D2 with assumed terms; revise on customer answer.
  - LD risk priced as 1–2% contingency.

### R-10 — Site survey discovers unforeseen conditions (e.g., asbestos, unmarked utilities)
- **Likelihood:** Low (greenfield) · **Impact:** High · **Score:** 3
- **Risk:** Unlikely for greenfield but possible if Q-018 reveals retrofit.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Site survey before T&C (week 12) — not in base scope; quote separately if retrofit.
  - If retrofit, contingency reserve 5% in BOQ.

### R-11 — Network/IT firewall delays (BMS LAN uplink)
- **Likelihood:** Medium · **Impact:** Low · **Score:** 2
- **Risk:** Customer IT may delay firewall rules / IP allocation, blocking BMS WAN access (e.g., remote support, NTP sync).
- **Mitigation:**
  - IT coordination meeting in week 4–5.
  - BMS LAN can operate isolated (without WAN) for T&C and handover; WAN is nice-to-have, not blocker.

### R-12 — Insufficient cable length for guestroom-floor distribution (per A-001)
- **Likelihood:** Low · **Impact:** Medium · **Score:** 2
- **Risk:** A-001 assumed 30 m average run from panel to device; actual hotel could exceed in long corridors. ±10% on cable BOQ.
- **Mitigation:**
  - Refine A-001 after Q-005 architectural drawings.
  - Material BOQ +10% safety margin on cable purchases.
  - Non-blocking: run out vs. spool out cable handled in field.

### R-13 — Contingency reserve adequacy
- **Likelihood:** N/A (always present) · **Impact:** Medium · **Score:** 4 (continuous)
- **Recommendation:** Include **5–10% contingency** in BOQ for unforeseen items, scope creep absorption, and risk pricing. Standard practice for medium-scale BMS.

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## Summary of mitigations affecting cost

| Risk | Cost item if materialized | Approx. value (% of total) |
|------|---------------------------|----------------------------|
| R-01 (FCUs) | +30-40% if confirmed | priced as separate option |
| R-02 (Supply slip) | Expedite premium | +1-2% (contingency) |
| R-03 (BOH AHUs) | +1-2% if confirmed | priced as separate option |
| R-04 (MEP delays) | Idle labor cost | +1-2% (contingency) |
| R-05 (Schedule pressure) | Overtime + crew premium | +20-30% if shorter |
| R-06 (Retrofit) | Demolition + cutover | +30% if confirmed |
| R-07 (Integration scope) | Each integration | priced as option |
| R-09 (Commercial terms) | Risk premium | +1-2% |
| R-10 (Unforeseen conditions) | Contingency draw | covered by 5-10% reserve |
| **Recommended contingency** | All above + general | **5-10% of base** |

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## Risk owner / escalation

- **BMS PM**: owns coordination risks (R-04, R-11)
- **BMS Engineering**: owns technical risks (R-02, R-03, R-12)
- **BMS Commercial**: owns commercial risks (R-05, R-08, R-09, R-13)
- **Customer**: owns scope-clarification risks (R-01, R-06, R-07)
- **Joint**: R-10 (site conditions)

Major escalations go to the customer's project manager + BMS director.